Projected Upcoming Fix Counts 14 Days until the next wrap (content cutoff) 51 Bug reports accrued toward the next minor 9 already linked to a fix commit3.9k List messages accrued toward the next minor 1,681 in fix-bound threads so far83 Distinct fixes already committed this cycle 96 Blended estimate for the next minor's fixes Each early signal times its historical median ratio, plus the blend and the seasonal floor; the spread IS the message — supply-side pace says a big release, but see the scorecard for how often it has been rightSignal Estimates for the Next MinorEach early signal times its historical median ratio, plus the blend and the seasonal floor; the spread IS the message — supply-side pace says a big release, but see the scorecard for how often it has been right050100bug reports x 1.923list messages x 0.021committed fixes x 1.349committed fixes by originblended (equal weight)seasonal baseline (Nov median)At today's cycle age; the rightmost early bar (the open cycle) is the highest ever observedEarly Committed Fixes vs Final Shipped, per CycleAt today's cycle age; the rightmost early bar (the open cycle) is the highest ever observedearly committed (at this cycle age)shipped in the releaseFeb 22May 22Aug 22Nov 22Feb 23May 23Aug 23Nov 23Feb 24May 24Aug 24Nov 24Feb 25May 25Aug 25Nov 25Feb 26May 26Aug 26Nov 26050100150Shipped fixes per early signal, per closed cycle at today's cycle age; Aug 26 is the supply-surge outlierHow Each Estimator's Ratio Has BehavedShipped fixes per early signal, per closed cycle at today's cycle age; Aug 26 is the supply-surge outlierAprilJulyOctober2023AprilJulyOctober2024AprilJulyOctober2025AprilJulyOctober2026AprilJuly0246per 100 list messagesper bug reportper committed fixProjected minus actual, replayed from the releases before each one at today's cycle age; zero is a perfect call; the first two points rest on one or two history releasesBacktest: Each Estimator's Error per Shipped ReleaseProjected minus actual, replayed from the releases before each one at today's cycle age; zero is a perfect call; the first two points rest on one or two history releasesJulyOctober2023AprilJulyOctober2024AprilJulyOctober2025AprilJulyOctober2026AprilJuly−100−50050list messagesbug reportsblended (equal weight)committed fixescommitted fixes by originMethod Scorecard Over the Shipped ReleasesMethodFamilyReleasesBiasmean abs errorreversionseries15−10.1012.60trendseries17−4.9013.40blended (equal weight)reference18−8.4013.50regime repeatseries18−4.7014.30list messagessignal18−9.7015.70escalationseries17−4.9015.90bug reportssignal18−7.3017.70seasonal baselinereference15−17.1018.30committed fixes by originsignal18−1.2020.40committed fixessignal18−8.0021.90 Data as of 21:42 UTC on 26 Oct 2026 made withdbt Charts

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